Trends of climatic changes in density of year rings

Svetlana L. Bondarenko, Irina G. Ustinova

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

The relevance of the research is caused by the need to conserve forest zones and to develop forest industry. The main aim of the research is to use long8term trends in characteristics under study such as density of annual rings, changes in total ozone in the atmosphere and the de Martonne aridity index for assessing climate change. In addition, another aim of the study is to de8 compose the dendrochronological signal into components associated with individual factors. Objects of the research are time series of the total ozone content in the atmosphere, density of annual rings and the de Martonne ari8 dity index. Methods: Time series analysis, spectral singular analysis (Caterpillar8SSA method), F8criterion. Results. The authors have analyzed the dendrochronological and climatic data in two numerical experiments (Data Mining). This allowed obtaining the information for the forecast of annual growth of coniferous trees and linking the individual components of the den8 drochronological signal with the influence of certain factors (temperature, precipitation, ultraviolet8B radiation, etc.). The use of the Ca8 terpillar8SSA method in combination with previously made factor analysis of the dispersion of the dendrochronological series helps allo8 cate climatic and sensitive to ultraviolet8B radiation components in separate time series. The obtained components can be used for long8 term prediction of wood density. Ultraviolet8B radiation (total ozone content) and climate signal can be used for reconstruction and pre8 diction of atmospheric characteristics (total ozone content, the de Martonne aridity index). Equations of nonlinear trends of maximum density of annual rings of coniferous trees, of total ozone content, of the de Martonne aridity index also allow obtaining a reliable pre8 diction of the conditions of formation of annual rings and wood density, but for a shorter period, as they do not consider the cyclicity of climatic processes.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)50-59
Number of pages10
JournalBulletin of the Tomsk Polytechnic University, Geo Assets Engineering
Volume330
Issue number3
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Jan 2019

Keywords

  • Dendrochronological method
  • Prediction
  • Singular spectral analysis.
  • Time series
  • Trend

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Materials Science (miscellaneous)
  • Fuel Technology
  • Geotechnical Engineering and Engineering Geology
  • Waste Management and Disposal
  • Economic Geology
  • Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law

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