Probabilistic simulation of non-uniform anthropogenic load in the context of forest fires

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Abstract

In this paper stochastic model is proposed to estimate the probability of forest fire from anthropogenic load. A point source of anthropogenic load is considered. For example, a rural settlement, a camp, an industrial site, which are located in controlled forest-covered areas. Mathematically, the following model can be formulated. Let’s consider circle with radius in the some set. Then the cumulative distribution function (c.d.f.) of ignition near the neighborhood of the point X0 can be defined. Obvious that all properties of c.d.f. are satisfied. Note, that all the points X=(x,y) that lying on the circle Gρ have the same probability P of ignition in the set G. This paper considers modified approach that simulate anthropogenic load around point source as non-uniform field. In this case a set of circle can be considered to simulate non-uniform distribution of c.d.f. Preliminary calculations of the forest fire probability from a point source of anthropogenic load on the basis of scenario modeling are carried out. Conclusions are drawn regarding the influence of a point source of anthropogenic load on the probability of forest fire occurrence in an adjacent territory. This model can be used in geoinformation systems to analyze forest fires occurrence due to anthropogenic load.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationEducation and Accreditation in Geosciences; Environmental Legislation, Multilateral Relations and Funding Opportunities
PublisherInternational Multidisciplinary Scientific Geoconference
Pages525-530
Number of pages6
Edition2.1
ISBN (Electronic)9786197408768
Publication statusPublished - 2019
Event19th International Multidisciplinary Scientific Geoconference, SGEM 2019 - Albena, Bulgaria
Duration: 30 Jun 20196 Jul 2019

Publication series

NameInternational Multidisciplinary Scientific GeoConference Surveying Geology and Mining Ecology Management, SGEM
Number2.1
Volume19
ISSN (Print)1314-2704

Conference

Conference19th International Multidisciplinary Scientific Geoconference, SGEM 2019
CountryBulgaria
CityAlbena
Period30.6.196.7.19

Keywords

  • Anthropogenic load
  • Cumulative distribution function
  • Forest fire danger
  • Probability
  • Simulation

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Geotechnical Engineering and Engineering Geology
  • Geology

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