TY - GEN

T1 - Probabilistic simulation of non-uniform anthropogenic load in the context of forest fires

AU - Baranovskiy, Nikolay

AU - Kritski, Oleg

N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© SGEM 2019.

PY - 2019

Y1 - 2019

N2 - In this paper stochastic model is proposed to estimate the probability of forest fire from anthropogenic load. A point source of anthropogenic load is considered. For example, a rural settlement, a camp, an industrial site, which are located in controlled forest-covered areas. Mathematically, the following model can be formulated. Let’s consider circle with radius in the some set. Then the cumulative distribution function (c.d.f.) of ignition near the neighborhood of the point X0 can be defined. Obvious that all properties of c.d.f. are satisfied. Note, that all the points X=(x,y) that lying on the circle Gρ have the same probability P of ignition in the set G. This paper considers modified approach that simulate anthropogenic load around point source as non-uniform field. In this case a set of circle can be considered to simulate non-uniform distribution of c.d.f. Preliminary calculations of the forest fire probability from a point source of anthropogenic load on the basis of scenario modeling are carried out. Conclusions are drawn regarding the influence of a point source of anthropogenic load on the probability of forest fire occurrence in an adjacent territory. This model can be used in geoinformation systems to analyze forest fires occurrence due to anthropogenic load.

AB - In this paper stochastic model is proposed to estimate the probability of forest fire from anthropogenic load. A point source of anthropogenic load is considered. For example, a rural settlement, a camp, an industrial site, which are located in controlled forest-covered areas. Mathematically, the following model can be formulated. Let’s consider circle with radius in the some set. Then the cumulative distribution function (c.d.f.) of ignition near the neighborhood of the point X0 can be defined. Obvious that all properties of c.d.f. are satisfied. Note, that all the points X=(x,y) that lying on the circle Gρ have the same probability P of ignition in the set G. This paper considers modified approach that simulate anthropogenic load around point source as non-uniform field. In this case a set of circle can be considered to simulate non-uniform distribution of c.d.f. Preliminary calculations of the forest fire probability from a point source of anthropogenic load on the basis of scenario modeling are carried out. Conclusions are drawn regarding the influence of a point source of anthropogenic load on the probability of forest fire occurrence in an adjacent territory. This model can be used in geoinformation systems to analyze forest fires occurrence due to anthropogenic load.

KW - Anthropogenic load

KW - Cumulative distribution function

KW - Forest fire danger

KW - Probability

KW - Simulation

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M3 - Conference contribution

AN - SCOPUS:85073333196

T3 - International Multidisciplinary Scientific GeoConference Surveying Geology and Mining Ecology Management, SGEM

SP - 525

EP - 530

BT - Education and Accreditation in Geosciences; Environmental Legislation, Multilateral Relations and Funding Opportunities

PB - International Multidisciplinary Scientific Geoconference

T2 - 19th International Multidisciplinary Scientific Geoconference, SGEM 2019

Y2 - 30 June 2019 through 6 July 2019

ER -